Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Standard, additional hydrogen source to create a domestic leader in surplus hydrogen energy supply

Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Standard, additional hydrogen source to create a domestic leader in surplus hydrogen energy supply

Event On April 12, 2019, the company proposed to set up Zhejiang Satellite Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. with its own funds. While focusing on the development plan and replacement of light hydrocarbons and other 佛山桑拿网 comprehensive utilization, it will better play its role in dehydrogenation and clean cracking.Advantages, will use the natural gas surplus in the production process, carry out the development of hydrogen energy business, participate in the development of hydrogen energy utilization technology, seek the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and actively participate in the development of the domestic hydrogen energy utilization industry, contribute to scale, a reasonable hydrogen source, and build a domesticSupply of surplus hydrogen sources.

Brief comment on the hydrogen policy dividend and promote the green clean energy revolution: Hydrogen is a green ideal new energy source, light in weight, heat transfers three times the calorific value of gasoline, produces non-toxic and pollution-free, and exists in various forms of storage and transportation.The transmission loss is small, and it will become one of the most promising energy sources in the future.

On March 15, 2019, the Second Session of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress ended, and the revised “Government Work Report” (revised edition) supplemented the contents of “promoting the construction of facilities such as charging and hydrogenation”.

In order to accelerate the development of hydrogen energy, China has gradually introduced development plans such as “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap”, “Blue Book of China’s Hydrogen Industry Infrastructure Development (2016)” and other development plans.Station, plans to build 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations in 2030.

The number of hydrogen refueling stations completed in 2018 does not exceed 25, which means that the number of hydrogen refueling stations needs to increase more than three times within two years.

The International Hydrogen Energy Commission predicts that hydrogen energy demand will be 10 times that of the current 2050, accounting for more than 15% of the final energy consumption, and a contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions of 20%.

The construction and development plan of the Yangtze River Delta Hydrogen Corridor will promote the Yangtze River Delta region to become the world’s most dynamic hydrogen economic region. It will also bring a broad market space for satellite hydrogen energy and become a new business growth point for the company.

The gas phase cost advantage of light alkane by-products is significant, and future profits can be expected: from the perspective of production costs, coal mainly comes from the company’s plant by-products. From the perspective of production costs, the industrialization of light alkane cracking by-product gas phase replaces the previous direct emptying or fuel utilization methods., Give full play to the added value of the company’s surplus wind power, and bring generous profits to the company.

From the perspective of transportation costs, the company is located in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region, the Yangtze River Delta economic belt, and the PDH project is close to Shanghai and Jiashan, Jiaxing. They are all within 100 kilometers and close to the hydrogen energy consumption market. Compared to coal to hydrogen, the mainstream chlor-alkali hydrogen production enterprise geographyThere is an absolute advantage in location.

At present, in the company’s C3 industrial chain, Zhejiang Satellite Energy has put into operation a 90-inch / year dehydrogenation propylene plant, part of which is used for self-built hydrogen peroxide with about 3 tons of surplus sulfuric acid per year, and the company’s comprehensive utilization project will have surplus fluorineIt can provide indicators for the development, promotion, and utilization of domestic hydrogen energy in 2015. It can become a leader in domestic hydrogen energy supply by subdividing hydrogen sources.

The satellite petrochemical C2 and C3 industry chain has developed steadily and provided stable cash flow: Satellite petrochemical released the 2019 first quarter performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in the first quarter2.

3?
3.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 103 in ten years.

29%?
191.

67%.

In the satellite petrochemical C2 industry chain, the first phase of the Lianyungang project will produce 125 ends of ethylene each year (a total of 250 locations for the two phases). It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2020.

Assuming that the short-term US price is US $ 320 / ton in 2021 and the domestic ethylene price is US $ 1300 / ton, according to our model calculations, the profit from the decomposition and preparation of the ethylene project is 2015 yuan / ton, and the net profit of US $ 25 million after the first phase of productionIt brings huge profits for the subsequent deep processing and conversion of polyethylene and cholesterol.

In the company’s C3 industry chain, the carbonic acid production capacity is 48 tons / year. The company plans to invest 36 tons / year acrylic acid project in Pinghu Petrochemical. The first phase is 18 tons / year feasible. The fourth quarter of 2019 will be put into operation. The downstream supporting 30 tons / year butyl acrylate; The planned annual production of 15 polypropylene polypropylene second phase projects and satellite new materials 6 inserted SAP will also be put into production one after another.

With the commissioning of the project, the 佛山桑拿网 comprehensive utilization efficiency of the C2 and C3 industry chains will be further improved, providing stable cash flow for the development, promotion and utilization of hydrogen energy.

Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 14 respectively.

2.8 billion, 18.

59 ppm and 30.

0.7 million yuan, EPS1.

34 yuan, 1.

74 yuan and 2.

81 yuan, PE12.

66X, 9.

71X and 6.

01X, maintain “Buy” rating.